Author Archives: Alex Igelman

About Alex Igelman

Alex Igelman is a gaming lawyer and consultant based in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. In 2007, Alex Igelman founded Gaming Research Partners, a full service gaming and eSports consultancy that specializes in research and business development.

PokerStars Likely to be Prevented From Entering New York, California | Gambling911.com

In my opinion, PokerStars should really focus on the rest of the world instead of the US. They are starting to look like the little kid who won’t take no for an answer.

Regardless of how much money they throw at lobbying, it is an extremely uphill battle they are fighting.

No question that PokerStars is the best poker software and operator out there but their continued attempts to enter the US market is sullying their name.

PokerStars Likely to be Prevented From Entering New York, California | Gambling911.com.

More external affirmation of my predictions: Morgan Stanley cuts value of NJ online gaming market

Morgan Stanley has just announced that they have lowered their first full year estimate of NJ online gambling revenue from 541 Million to 203 Million.

They also stated that they believe the month over month growth will be in the 10% range as opposed to the 20% they predicted earlier in 2012.

As I have been saying all along, the estimates by Gov. Christie and the Wall Street analysts were much to optimistic and I continue to stick to my prediction that the revenues from NJ online gambling will not exceed 160 Million for the first full year.

Click below to view the original article:

Firm cuts value of NJ online gaming market | The Daily Journal | thedailyjournal.com.

External proof the NJ poker numbers are declining

Pokerscout.com is a website and service that bills itself as the leading source of information about the online poker industry. Their online poker liquidity(traffic) rankings give a clear picture of the internet poker industry as a whole.

By looking at the data that Pokerscout provides, one can clearly see the beginning of a downtrend in poker traffic at the top three NJ sites:Party Borgata, All American [888], and WSOP.

While it is obviously still early days in the NJ market, one would not expect to see such early declining player liquidity numbers and even more so on the three top sites. And ALL the sites are showing declining liquidity. It is not as if one site is declining to the benefit of another site.

Less players on the sites means less active tables. Less active tables means less variety for the would-be players and hence less attractive for players to play. This in turn leads to less action and less rake for the casinos.

I have said for quite some time now that due to the finite number of players in NJ and the natural attrition and drop-off rate that occurs in poker sites, there is no possible way that the NJ poker sites can continue to show double digit month over month growth. It is bound to continually decrease and level off.

This in turn means that even the “revised” NJ tax revenue figures will be missed by a substantial margin.

This does not bode well for the online poker industry in the US. Without proper liquidity (which can only happen with Federal approval and inter-state compacts or potentially with much larger populated states [CA]), the NJ online gambling experiment is bound to fail and this will provide the growing anti-online gambling folks with much needed fodder to support their position.

As the anti-online and pro-online battle heats up over the next few weeks and months, the numbers coming out of NJ are definitely not helping the pro-online cause.

It looks like Steve Wynn made the best decision here. Wait on the sidelines and let the others spend the money and battle it out.

To see the charts I describe above please click on the following links:

1)Party Borgata Network (New Jersey) live traffic report | PokerScout.

2) WSOP.com (New Jersey) live traffic report | PokerScout.

3) All American Poker Network – 888 (New Jersey) live traffic report | PokerScout.

Internet gambling growth slows in New Jersey

27 days ago in one of the discussions I started on this forum, I stated the following regarding online poker:

“In the global market there is a huge pool of players that can replace the players dropping off from various websites. In NJ, there is a finite number of players and we already know from surveys that only a small percentage of casino players have an interest in playing online. It is therefore logical to assume that the growth in NJ online poker and casino will not continue at double digits. In fact, I predict very limited month over month growth. I predict no more than 150M in Internet gaming revenue from NJ which is 85% less than Christie predicted and between 50-65% less than the most pessimistic projections. In light of all this I continue to stick to my guns and declare that the NJ online gambling experiment will be disappointing.”

After the NJ online gaming revenue figures for February came out yesterday, I was not surprised to see that the results were exactly in line with my predictions. Player interest is tapering off and we will continue to see a plateau and potential decline in revenue figures.

The only potential way the numbers may increase is a result or promotions, giveaways, or marketing dollars spent that we may not be able to actually see in the gross win figures but would seriously impact the profitability of the online operations.

Validating my aforementioned position, Craig Abrahams, CFO of Caesars Acquisition Company stated and in a conference call this week:

“We expect the impact of marketing costs and expenses related to the ramp up of operations to continue this year as we work to attract new customers, invest in operational infrastructure and create greater awareness in both Nevada and New Jersey.”

One should also note that online gambling revenues at Caesars Interactive were a drop in the bucket compared to their social and non-gambling interactive revenues.

Again I will state for the record that I do not believe that online gambling in NJ will be a success and as a result the excitement will die down and US states will not be that interested in jumping on the bandwagon in the near future.

Unless a Federal Poker bill is passed (slim chance) and there is true interstate cooperation and player liquidity, the online gambling experiment in the US is bound to fail.

To read the original article, click below:

Internet gambling growth slows in New Jersey.

My colleague Prof. Joseph Kelly discussing the recent lawsuit by a California Gambler against the Downtown Grand AirTalk | 89.3 KPCC

The recent lawsuit by Californian Mark Johnston against the Downtown Grand Las Vegas, illustrates the lengths some people will go towards dishonoring gambling debts.

While all the facts of the case have not yet been made apparent, drunkenness is not a defense in Nevada to incurring gambling debts.

Please click the link below and then click on LISTEN NOW on the left side of the page to hear Prof. Kelly’s opinion on this case.

Too drunk to gamble? Man sues Las Vegas casino after losing $500,000 | AirTalk | 89.3 KPCC.